Steppe Ancestry Estimations in West, Central & South Asia (Ancestral Proportions Method) [Original Work]

Disclaimer
This is largely a re-post, albeit with additional explanations, from a recent ADMIXTURE autosomal run (Eurasia K20) performed at Anthrogenica by the user Kurd. Full technical information and the original files may be found in his original thread. Full acknowledgement is provided to him for the great work. Unless stated otherwise, assume the contents refer to the Eurasia K20 run. This entry may be updated at any time to include further investigations based on future runs. Finally, this entry assumes the mainstream Pontic-Caspian theory for the genesis of the Indo-Europeans to be fully accurate.

Preamble
This entry/repost contains a "quick and dirty" method for a preliminary attempt at deriving their Sintashta admixture levels in West, Central and South Asians based on the Eurasia K20 scores. Given the different admixture histories elsewhere in Eurasia, this probably won't be very informative for users with ancestral backgrounds outside the lands between Kurdistan and the Indo-Gangetic plains. This is especially the case with modern Europeans, who share the same core components with Sintashta, while also deriving their own Indo-European ancestries from different archaeological cultures and time periods.

Establishing the Context
According to this Eurasia K20 run, Sintashta are approximately 62% Yamnaya, 22% EEF, 10% European and 3% SHG_WHG. Sintashta, at present, appear to be the best proxy for the Indo-Iranians that arrived in West and South Asia. The above four components define the majority (94%) of Sintashta's autosomal profile here.

As discussed elsewhere in Anthrogenica (kudos to user Sein for pointing this out), Sintashta should be considered better surrogates for the Andronovo-related waves which reached West, Central and South Asia than the actual Andronovo samples derived from Allentoft et al. 2015. This is due to the Andronovo samples being derived from the extreme northeast of the archaeological horizon (above the Altai, near Afanasievo). Their position opens up the possibility for extraneous admixture from other steppe groups (including early speakers of Tocharian through Afanasievo?).

The user Kurd has previously demonstrated that recent steppe-related admixture may be segregated from other components. While undertaking this exercise, it also looks like Kurd has done an excellent job addressing the "teal" component that defined up to half of Samara Yamnaya and a big chunk of Sintashta. Kurd's K20 is, in my view, the most effective attempt thus far at separating the complicated autosomal overlapping in West and Central Eurasia.

Introducing the Ancestral Proportions Method (APM)
At present, the genetic landscape in West, Central and South Asia presents as a triple conundrum:

1. There is, to date (and with the exception of the poor quality Barcin Neolithic Turkish sample), absolutely no interpretable ancient DNA (aDNA) from any of these regions, or indeed, at any point in this broad area's history. Perhaps the greatest obstacle at present.
2. Autosomal and uniparental marker data from across the region are either inconsistent in sample strategy, or outdated, preventing a knowledge-based approach towards interpreting results.
3. Archaeological evidence is inconsistent across the region; some cultures are well-studied, whereas others have fallen to mirthful speculation or cannot be readily assigned to any particular prehistoric group.

The APM is, in principle, unconcerned with these issues. Instead, it relies on objective data from a single ancient population to discern the numerical degree of overlap with modern populations.

Whether or not Iranians, Punjabis or Nepalis derive the bulk of their ancestry from unrelated group X or Y is beside the point. The sole purpose of the APM is, therefore, to establish whether or not ancient population Z has left any genetic imprint on modern populations A-K, and if so, to what extent. As such, the methodology described here is completely different as it is assymetrical; one-way gene flow across space and time from one ancestral (extinct) population to numerous extant populations. APM or derivative approaches should be considered as supplementary rather than directly competing with symmetrical modelling techniques such as f3 statistics.

The APM was specifically designed to answer the question; to what degree did Sintashta-related populations contribute to the modern groups of West, Central and South Asia? This simple inquiry has a tendency to attract considerable debate and wildly differing estimates in online discussion boards. Today, using the APM and recently generated data from the Eurasia K20 run, I hope to provide one set of estimations completely independent of extraneous modelling factors.

This approach is entirely reliant on high component specificity (e.g. minimal overlap or bleed-over from one component to another). This particular parameter is not within my control in this instance. As such, the outputs from APM here should be considered cautionary preliminary estimates at best, given the potential for ADMIXTURE-related shortcomings in the absence of relevant aDNA. I anticipate this approach will be much more effective at gleaning admixture extents once aDNA from West and Central Asia dating <2200 B.C. are retrieved.

The APM Approach
To contrast against the ADMIXTURE Sintashta scores, two different approaches are utilised together:

1) Direct Overlap (DO): summarised, for each component, the maximum overlap between a given population average and Sintashta's scores are calculated. This is done individually across all four components (Yamnaya, EEF, European, SHG_WHG) with the outputs added. See image below for schematic (conceptual breakdown of how the DO principle works between hypothetical samples 1 and 2, with Components a-d representing the distinct components).

Schematic diagram showing the principle behind Direct Overlap calculation

2) Component Proportions (CP): A single dominating component (frequency > 50%) is considered modal for the ancestral population of choice, with the other values considered as a fraction of this in modern populations. Given the Yamnaya component makes up almost two-thirds of Sintashta, the ratio between a population's and Sintashta's Yamnaya score are calculated and re-applied to the rest.

There are, however, problems with either approach:

1) DO is overinflated the more West Eurasian a population is. For example, several of the Iranian or Kurdish users at Anthrogenica had component scores greater than what is found in Sintashta (e.g. European being 12% in one sample, when it's 10% in Sintashta). This biases the results for Iranians and Kurds greatly, even when absolute value adjustments are set in place, which the formula shows is (it is highly improbable an Iranian with 10% European derived all of it from Sintashta).

2) CP is more accurate given the Yamnaya component appears highly steppe-oriented in Eurasia K20 and can therefore serve as a direct admixture marker. However, some of the South Asians are scoring very low, or almost none of, the other key components found in Sintashta (e.g. EEF). Due to this, CP doesn't fully account for the "missing variation" in South Asians, biasing the results slightly in their favour.

One convenient workaround is undertaking an average of both scores. However. given CP is intuitively more accurate due to the reasonable specificity of the Yamnaya component, a weighted average biased in favour of CP by a ratio of 3:1 was undertaken. The ratio choice in this variant of the APM is arbitrary here. Other variants (2:1, 4:1) would not result in radically different outcomes.

Results
Full results from up to 24 populations are shown in the Data Sink (interactive chart below). Summarised, Pamiri Tajiks are the most Sintashta-derived at 31.9%. North Caucasian (Ossetian) and Central Asian ethnic groups (Pashtuns, Uzbek, other Tajiks, Turkmen) follow at 22-19%. Various other ethnic groups across West, Central and South Asia follow. The lowest scoring population sampled here are the Makrani at 9.2%.

Internal Validation
The output (Data Sink) readily demonstrates strong correlation between DO and CP scores per population (e.g. Tajik Pamiris at 34.20% & 30.8%, Nepalis at 15% & 14.5% and Makrani at 10.2% & 8.7% respectively account for the top, middle and bottom pairs). The only marked deviation between the DO and CP scores were noted in West Asian populations (Armenians, Kurds, Iranians), as mentioned previously. Thus, empirical confirmation of correlation (e.g. Spearman's rank order) is unwarranted here.

Another means of confirming the validity of APM is to confirm Andronovo is a descendant of Sintashta. As the Andronovo archaeological horizon originates from Sintashta directly, one would expect very high (>90%) Sintashta-derived ancestry among them.

This appears to be the case. compared against Sintashta, Andronovo exhibits DO = 83.9%, CP = 97.3%, an average of 90.6% and a weighted average of 92.8%.

Summarised, these two results (dataset-wide correlation, ancestral-immediate successor high overlap) validate the outcomes of the APM.

Closing Thoughts
The results featured in this entry are in line with both broad uniparental marker data, previously published IBD results (unfortunately removed from sources) and are largely (though not fully) compatible with the degree of archaeological input from Andronovo-derived cultures in Asia. As stated previously, due to earlier shortcomings, they should not be considered definitive.

Given the CP here is not exclusively associated with Sintashta, I anticipate this technique will be more accurate if future "steppe"/"Yamnaya"/"Yamanya_related" components are shown to define more of the Sintashta samples. I look forward to extending this method in the near future.

Acknowledgements
Special thanks to the user Kurd from Anthrogenica for making this data available and obliging member inquiries with productive responses, as well as the user Sapporo for generating several of the population averages.

Interpreting New Iranian Y-Chromosomal Data (Grugni et al.) [Review]

Introduction

A new study on Iranian Y-Chromosomes released just yesterday has, to my satisfaction, adequately sampled every major ethno-linguistic group as well as determining inter-provincial variation between them. Grugni et al. sampled 938 unrelated Iranian men from 15 ethnic groups (including Assyrians, Zoroastrians and Turkmen) in 14 provinces across the country.


Abstract

"Knowledge of high resolution Y-chromosome haplogroup diversification within Iran provides important geographic context regarding the spread and compartmentalization of male lineages in the Middle East and southwestern Asia. At present, the Iranian population is characterized by an extraordinary mix of different ethnic groups speaking a variety of Indo-Iranian, Semitic and Turkic languages. Despite these features, only few studies have investigated the multiethnic components of the Iranian gene pool. In this survey 938 Iranian male DNAs belonging to 15 ethnic groups from 14 Iranian provinces were analyzed for 84 Y-chromosome biallelic markers and 10 STRs. The results show an autochthonous but non-homogeneous ancient background mainly composed by J2a sub-clades with different external contributions. The phylogeography of the main haplogroups allowed identifying post-glacial and Neolithic expansions toward western Eurasia but also recent movements towards the Iranian region from western Eurasia (R1b-L23), Central Asia (Q-M25), Asia Minor (J2a-M92) and southern Mesopotamia (J1-Page08). In spite of the presence of important geographic barriers (Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, and the Dasht-e Kavir and Dash-e Lut deserts) which may have limited gene flow, AMOVA analysis revealed that language, in addition to geography, has played an important role in shaping the nowadays Iranian gene pool. Overall, this study provides a portrait of the Y-chromosomal variation in Iran, useful for depicting a more comprehensive history of the peoples of this area as well as for reconstructing ancient migration routes. In addition, our results evidence the important role of the Iranian plateau as source and recipient of gene flow between culturally and genetically distinct populations."

[PDF]


Interpretation of Results

Iranian Y-SNP Frequencies

Data from the original study can be found opposite. In addition, several contour maps showing the frequency of select Y-DNA Haplogroups found across the country are shown along the right. Armenians, Zoroastrians and Assyrians from Tehran, as well as Afro-Iranians from Hormozgan province, are excluded. Note that updated ISOGG nomenclature was applied wherever deemed appropriate (refer to SNP's for clarification of status). Frequency ranges shown on maps are from 0-100%. Please note the maps are only intended to depict general trends rather than specific figures. Refer to the figures from the study (above) for these.

- Consistent with anthropological data and historical records from South Iran, the Y-DNA Haplogroups with frequencies greater in Africa than Eurasia (B-M60 and E2-M75) peak in Hormozgan province. 

- Over half a dozen para-Haplogroups (C*-M216, F*-M89, H*-M69, IJ*-M429, J2*-M172, L*-M61, NO*-LLY22g, Q1*-P36.2 and R*-M207) were found scattered across Iran. Although the presence of para-Haplogroups within a region are often taken as an indicator of a lineage's antiquity there, both their consistency and correspondence with downstream younger clades must be considered before such a conclusion is made. As such, I do not consider H*-M69, NO*-LLY22g or C*-M216's presence in this cohort to indicate anything other than Iran's position as a geographic crossroad. The remaining ones (particularly J2*-M172, L*-M61 and R*-M207) require further investigation to elucidate whether Iran does stake the claim to the origins of each.

- Further to the above, it is likely that the R*-M207 reported in this paper is in fact R2*-M479 based on the dated SNP array used.

- C5-M356 makes a sporadic appearance across Iran. A mysterious clade with a spotty distribution across much of Eurasia. In the region, it is more commonly associated with the Indian Subcontinent.

Iranian J1c3-PAGE08

- Haplogroup G makes a strong appearance with, in my opinion, enough clade diversity to validate an origin in Iran or a close-by region. This is partially supported by its' presence in every ethnic group, albeit through different subclades.

- Although IJ*-M429 has finally been found, Grugni et al.'s decision not to publish STR data does not give us the means to determine if the two Mazandarani and Persian men are in fact related within a genealogical timeframe. The significance of this find in Iran will have to remain pending.

- The lacklustre SNP definition in the Y-DNA I found in Iran (Gilaki, Bandari, Kurdish and Armenian populations between I1-M253 and I2-M438) dissuades strong conclusions regarding the development of I-M170 relative to IJ*-M429's discovery. The lack of STR's prevents us from ascertaining whether these are recent contributions from Europe or not, or whether there is any European connection to begin with.

- Both the frequency and subclade diversity of Haplogroup J2-M172 (as well as the presence of J2*-M172 and J2a*-M410 across the country) makes Iran a strong candidate for the origin of this lineage.

- The strong presence of J1c3-PAGE08 is one of the surprising finds of this study. With an absence only amongst Assyrians from Azarbaijan province and a peak in Khuzestani Arabs (31.6%), I speculate this is an early Near-Eastern pastoralist nomad marker that is only accentuated in Khuzestani Arabs because the L147.1 marker (J1c3d), which is commonly associated with the expansion of Semitic languages (particularly Arabic in literature) was not tested here. Otherwise, it would be difficult to reconcile medieval Arabic admixture among Iran's Zoroastrians being comparable (and often greater) than Azeris, for instance, as Azerbaijan hosted Arab garrisons following the Sassanid collapse.

- Haplogroup Q presents with a very distorted picture. 42.6% of Turkmens belonging to Q1a2-M25 is not in agreement with Wells et al.'s The Eurasian Heartland: A continental perspective on Y-chromosome diversity, where Haplogroups J, N, R1a and R1b predominated, suggesting either an extensive Founder effect has taken place (i.e. regionalisation of certain branches from a common Oghuz Turk pool) or the Golestani Turkmen values have experienced a more generic form of genetic drift.
On the matter of Turkic affinities, Azeri's from Azarbaijan province have greater subclade variation than all other ethnic groups. However, the total frequency is either comparable (or less) than Persians nationwide. As it stands, if one were to presume Haplogroup Q in Iran was of Turkic origins, it would appear their contribution to the Persian and Azeri genepools is comparable despite linguistic differences. Although more data would certainly flesh this matter out, this diversity combined with the presence of N-M216 among Iran's Azeri population certainly gives a genetic basis for their linguistic heritage.

- Haplogroup R1a1a-M17 is regularly found at frequencies greater than 15% across Iran, contrary to the assertion made by Dr. Wells one decade ago regarding the limited samples he obtained, again from The Eurasian Heartland: A continental perspective on Y-chromosome diversity ;

Iranian G2a-P15

"Intriguingly, the population of present-day Iran, speaking a major Indo-European language (Farsi), appears to have had little genetic influence from the M17-carrying Indo-Iranians."

It is somewhat ironic, however, to note that the Persians from Fars province presented one of the lowest R1a1a-M17 frequencies observed in this study. Whether sampling chance is an issue here, or the sparsity of M17 is indeed a reality, is an open question.

- The presence of both R1a1-SRY1532.2 (shown as R1a* due to old nomenclature) and R1b*-M343 repeat the presence of these para-Haplogroups in the region, indicating West Asia was from whence Haplogroup R1-M173 began differentiating into the two primary subclades we see today in Eurasia.

- Haplogroup R1b1a2a-L23 is more frequent in the north and west of the country, which (together with its' presence in the furthest southern and eastern poles at ~3%) suggests it likely moved in an overall south-easterly direction via diffusion, probably during the Neolithic.

- The distribution of Haplogroup R2a-M124 is, much like C5-M356, irregular. Contrary to what is shown in Haber et al.'s research, R2a is not more common in the east of the country. Instead, it can be found amongst Esfahani Persians at a frequency of 9.1%. That Iran's R2a frequency achieves its' peak in the centre of the country is reminiscent of Sahoo et al.'s A prehistory of Indian Y chromosomes: Evaluating demic diffusion scenarios;

The sensationalist question of the hour; what accounts for the spike in R2a-M124 that has been picked up in Central Iran for the past half decade?

- Finally, Haplogroup T-M70 enjoys a frequency of 10.1% amongst Assyrians from Azarbaijan province, whilst also being more common among Persians across the country and Iranians from the western periphery of the country (Azeris and Kurds). This would suggest, therefore, an at least passive but deep association with ancient Near-Eastern cultures.

Criticisms of Paper

Despite the rich sampling pool, I have several immediate criticisms;

Iranian J1-M267

• There are some issues with the sampling strategy employed by this paper. For instance, the Assyrians (Christian non-Arab Semitic-speaking minority) are represented by 39 men, although Persians from Esfahan (a major Iranian city) are by 11 only. 
• Inadequate haplotype data has been released; the only offering is 8-STR's from select lineages (e.g. J1*-M267) which were used for variance analysis.
• Furthermore, a maximum of 10 Y-STR's were analysed, rendering some of their variance calculations questionable at such a low resolution. This also does away with the possibility of MRCA and intra-subclade age calculations.
• Grugni et al. have approached Haplogroup R1a1a-M17 in a similar vein to past studies (e.g. Haber et al., see Showcasing of Y-DNA Variation Among Afghan Ethnic Groups) by not referring to current data concerning the structure of R1a1a. As with Haber et al., R1a1a-M458 is taken as the "European" strain, despite research undertaken by the R1a1a and Subclades Y-DNA Project revealing the apparent schism between the upstream Z283 and Z93 SNP's being far more informative in this regard.
• Haplogroup R1b1a2*-L23 is considered as a "West Eurasian" paternal contribution to the Iranian plateau rather than the possibility it may have originated within or in proximity to the country's western zone. 
• As shown in Interpretation of Results, Grugni et al.'s use of dated nomenclature poses problems for those who may not be intimately familiar with recent Y-SNP Tree changes by ISOGG.

Acknowledgements

Map of Iran courtesy of D-Maps.com.